UBS, Merrill Confounded by Dollar's Strength Against Euro, Yen
Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- ``The dollar is not yet out of the woods,'' UBS AG strategists told clients in an Oct. 2 report, as the currency traded higher against the euro and yen than the firm had predicted. The dollar would weaken ``sooner rather than later,'' they wrote.
Within days, they were eating crow. By Oct. 16, UBS had twice raised its one-month dollar forecasts to 119 yen and $1.24 to the euro, up from 114 yen and $1.30. It also raised its three- month dollar estimates. ``Dollar to stay stronger for longer,'' the bank was telling clients.
UBS and Merrill Lynch & Co. have been surprised by the U.S. currency's strength this year. They're betting that traders in the more than $2 trillion-a-day global foreign-exchange market will come around to their view on the dollar as the world's economy cools off.
``As investors have become more positive on global growth, the dollar has managed to confound the long-term bears,'' said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, global head of foreign-exchange strategy at UBS in London. ``The dollar will do well while such sentiment lasts; but once financial markets shift towards pricing in slower global growth, the dollar will start to weaken again.''
A slowdown in the U.S. housing market will weigh on the economy, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut its benchmark interest rate to 4.25 percent from 5.25 percent now, the firm says. The Fed raised borrowing costs 17 consecutive times between June 2004 and June of this year.
Lower interest rates would make the U.S. currency relatively less attractive. In a year, Mohi-uddin predicts the dollar will be changing hands at $1.40 per euro -- or 9.9 percent weaker than its current $1.2608 -- and at 100 yen, 16 percent weaker than last week's close of 118.75 yen.
He's got plenty of company. In foreign-exchange forecasts compiled by Bloomberg News, 32 of the 42 projections have the euro at $1.28 or above by year end, and 22 of the 42 see it at $1.30 or higher. By contrast, only six have the euro trading at $1.25 or lower by Dec. 31.
Meanwhile, 26 of 42 forecasts see the dollar at 115 yen or weaker by year end, while only four of 42 predict it will be at 120 yen or higher.
``A large part of the foreign-exchange market, including ourselves, is bearish on the dollar,'' said Steven Englander, head G-10 currency strategist at Merrill Lynch in New York.
Growing Economies
``The European and Japanese economies are in the upswing; the market is underestimating how high and how fast their central banks will raise interest rates,'' he said. ``Right now, investors are pretty much ignoring the good economic stories in Europe and Japan.''
The European Central Bank's benchmark rate stands at 3.25 percent, having been increased by 1.25 percentage points since December. The Bank of Japan raised its key overnight rate to 0.25 percent from almost zero in July, its first increase since August 2000.
Step 2: How to Buy and Sell the Currency PairsNow that our charts are set up, let’s learn HOW to open and close a position, or buy and sell on the a platform. After we learn HOW, we can look at WHEN to enter/exit a trade using the technical indicators.
Simply move your cursor to the the platform table and click. A menu will pop up and at the top it will say buy with the current exchange rate to buy and sell with the current exchange rate to sell. You should Buy if you think the price line will go up on your chart or sell when you think the rate will drop
Stop Order: Is a price you enter into an open position, where the trading platform automatically closes your position when the Exchange rate touches that level. If you are in a winning trade, you can move your stop up or down to protect profits. If the exchange rate never hits that level, then the Order doesn’t get filled.
**tip: If you are in a winning trade, you can move your stop to your entry level, so that if your trade moves against you, the platform closes your position without any losses.
**tip: You should be comfortable setting your stop Order at 15-20 pips. If you can’t handle a 15-20 pip loss, then you are need to trade smaller amounts. This will help you from over leveraging your trading account.
Limit Order: Is a price you enter into an open position for the trading platform to automatically close your position at a profit. For example, you might set your limit order at a 15 pip profit. If the exchange rate never hits that level, then the Order doesn’t get filled.
Step 1: Open a ‘Virtual Trading’ Demo AccountThe first step to trading the currency markets is to open a demo account. It is important that you learn how to buy and sell the currency pairs, set stop losses, set profit limits, and understand how leveraged margin works when you trade. I found the best way to learn this is by experience.
To set up your FREE charting just google on Forex brokers and simply go to their website and open a Free demo account. Merketiva is one of the few brokers who don't charge fees and have no minimum deposit.
Here is a list of some of the main Forex trading Firms on the Internet:
FXCM
CMS Forex
ACM Advanced Currency Markets
Fairlot Financial Group
Forex Capital Markets
GAIN Capital
GCI Financial, Ltd.
Global Forex
IFX Markets Limited
London Capital
Meridian Forex Pty Limited
MG Financial Group
SaxoBank
Tricom
Free signals
The best way to start trading Forex safely is to try to get access to forex signals which is an alert provided by very experienced analysts, it contains the pair of currency, the amount to trade, the TP "take profit", and the Stop loss point.
In general the signal is sent via email, SMS or call on cellphone, or with a software connected to a server which send the signal instantly.
Good Forex signals which allow you to earn a lot of pips and huge money in just few minuts costs from $100 to $1000 per month. For a begginer it is preferable to try to find on the net some free signals and tips provided by some generous people.
Here i will always update this article with a daily Free signal:
Date____ Pair_____ Buy/sell at____ Take profit_____Stop loss__Status
Mars6th__EUR/USD___Sell/1.2035_______1.2010______1.2065 loss
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mars1st__UER/USD___Buy/1.1928_______1.1965_______1.1898 WON
___________________________________________ (at 15:30GMT)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Feb 24___USD/CHF___Buy/1.3100_____1.3154_______1.3055 WON
(rised up to 1.3200)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
22 Feb___GBP/USD___Sell/1.7433______1.7404_______1.7455 WON
(was down to 1.7376 at 14:00 GMT)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20 Feb___EUR/USD___Buy/1.1940______1.2010______1.1860 LOSS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
17 Feb___UER/USD___Sell/1.1880_______1.1855______1.1898 WON
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
16 Feb___USD/JPY___ Sell/118.10_______117.85______118.28 WON
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enjoy trade.
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Act before February 15th, 2006 and you are not only eligible to receive up to $1000* (added to your account), but you can also shake your groove-thing with a free iPod Shuffle (just don't do it when others are watching).
WHAT IS FOREX?
The Foreign Exchange, also referred the "Forex" or "Spot FX" market, is the largest financial market in the world, with over $1.2 trillion changing hands every single day. If you compare that to the $25 billion a day volume that the New York Stock Exchange trades, you see how giant the Foreign Exchange really is. In fact it is three times larger than all of the US Equity and Treasury markets combined!
What is traded on the Foreign Exchange?
The answer is money. Forex trading is where the currency of one nation is traded for that of another. Therefore, Forex trading is always traded in pairs. The most commonly traded currency pairs are traded against the US Dollar (USD). They are called ‘the Majors'. The major currency pairs are the Euro Dollar (EUR/USD); the British Pound (GBP/USD); the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY); and the Swiss Franc (USD/CHF). Because there is not a central exchange for the Forex market, these pairs and their are traded over the telephone and online through a global network of banks, multinational corporations, importers and exporters, brokers and currency traders.
Traditionally, currency trading has been a 'professionals only' market available exclusively to banks and large institutions, however, because of the rise of the new E-economy, online Forex trading firms are now able to offer trading accounts to 'retail' traders like you and I. Now almost anyone with a computer and an Internet connection can trade currencies just like the world's largest banks do. There are now over 6 million trading accounts worldwide up from 1.7million in 1997.
What makes FOREX trading different?
There are many benefits and advantages to trading Forex. Here are just a few reasons why so many people are choosing this market as a business opportunity:
1.Leverage:
In Forex trading, a small margin deposit can control a much larger total contract value. Leverage gives the trader the ability to make extraordinary profits and at the same time keep risk capital to a minimum. Some Forex firms offer 200 to 1 leverage, which means that a $50 dollar margin deposit would enable a trader to buy or sell $10,000 worth of currencies. Similarly, with $500 dollars, one could trade with $100,000 dollars and so on.
2.Liquidity:
Because the Forex Market is so large, it is also extremely liquid. This means that with a click of a mouse you can instantaneously buy and sell . You can even set the online trading platform to automatically close your position at your desired profit level (limit order), and/or close a trade if a trade is going against you (stop order).
3.Profit in both 'Rising' and 'Falling' markets:
On the stock markets, you can only make money if shares are rising, but in economic recession and falling markets, there is little chance of making big money.
Forex is different. One of the most exciting advantages of FX trading is the ability to generate profits whether a currency pair is 'up' or 'down'. A trader can profit by taking a 'long' position, (buying the currency pair at one price and selling it later at a higher price), or a 'short' position, (selling the currency pair and buying it back at a lower price). For example, if you think the US dollar will increase in value vs. the Japanese Yen then you will buy Dollars and sell Yen (go long). If you think the Yen will increase in value against the Dollar then you will sell Dollars and buy yen (go short). As long as the trader picks the right direction, a potential for profit always exists.
4. 24 Hours live:
From Sunday evening to Friday Afternoon the Forex market never sleeps. This is very desirable for those who want to trade on a part-time basis, because you can choose when you want to trade--morning, noon or night.
5. Free 'DEMO' Accounts, News, charts and analysis:
Most Online Forex firms offer free 'Demo' accounts to practice trading, along with breaking Forex news and charting services. These are very valuable resources for traders who would like to hone their trading skills with 'virtual' money before opening a live trading account.
6.'Minimum trading:
One might think that getting started as a currency trader would cost a lot of money. The fact is, it doesn't. Online Forex Firms now offer 'mini' trading accounts with a minimum account deposit of only $5-$500 with no commission trading. This makes Forex much more accessible to the average individual, without large, start-up capital. one of the most accessoble brokers now is
the suiss forex broker Marketiva, within just few minuts you can start executing real orders online with no commissions and no fees, they have no minimum account deposit, and more they offer you $5 rewards in your account balance. "For more information click the banner bellow"
Rules for success in Forex :
Currency Trading is not a Get Rich Quick Scheme. Currency trading is a skill that takes time to learn. Skilled Traders can make money in this field, however like any other occupation or career, success doesn’t just happen overnight. there is no substitute for hard work.
Practice and training.
Practice trading on a demo account and pretend the virtual money is your own real money. Never open a live trading account until you are profitable trading on a demo account.
It is highly recommend that to follow 1 or 2 major currency pairs.
It gets far too complicated to keep tabs on all four. It is highly recommended that traders choose one of the majors because the spread is the best and they are the most used. The Euro/USD is the most commonly traded pair and usually has the best ‘spread’ because of its liquidity. The USD/Swiss Franc is usually the most volatile and moves the most during the trading week. The USD/Yen moves a lot on the news out of Japan and normally the Pound Sterling/USD is more stable in it’s moves than the other three.
Follow and understand the daily ForexNews and Analysis of the professional currency analysts.
Even though this system is based solely on technical analysis of charts, it is important to get a birds-eye view of the currency markets and the news that affects the prices.
While reading the daily news and technical analysis, it is recommanded to note what direction the analysts are saying about the major currency pair you are following.
Fortunately, all the best Forex news and analysis is offered free on the Internet.
There is a lot of specialized websites where you can find news and analysis:
www.forexnews.com : The site gives the big picture of how the economic calendar and central banks affect the currency markets.
www.fxstreet.com : Here there is a good listing of all the major daily currency analysis and forecasts with support and direction forecasts.
www.currencypro.com: A Forex Portal with excellent analysis on the Major Currency pairs.
Learn how to use the technical indicators and always trade with stop losses.
It is worth to be patient and learn how to use the technical indicators on tutorials.
It is important when trading Forex, to be disciplined and to stick to a plan. Never trade with gut feeling. The use of technical indicators outlined and always stop losses option on every trade is the key for success. Everyone who trades has a different tolerance for losses. It depend on evryone risk capital, and strategy.
How to choose an online Forex Firm or Broker ?
The objective of the trader is to trade with market moves to try to gain small to medium sized profits in any given trading day. The caracteristics of the trading station provided by the online broker is very important.
What to look for in an online Forex Firm:
1. Low Spreads. In Forex Trading the ‘spread’ is the difference between the buy and sell price of any given currency pair. The lower the spread saves the trader money. Most firms offer 4-5 pip spreads in the Major Currency pairs. The best firms offer clients 3-5 pips.
2. Low minimum account openings.For those that are new to trading, and for those that don’t have thousands of dollars in risk capital to trade, being able to open a mini trading account with only $200 is a great feature for new traders.
3. Instant automatic execution of your orders.This is very important when choosing a Forex firm. You want instant execution of your orders and the price you see and ‘click’ is the price that you should get.
4 Free charting and technical analysis.You need a firm that gives you access to the best charting and technical analysis available to active traders, a firm that gives clients free professional charting services and even allows traders to trade directly on the charts!
5. High LeverageYou need high leverage; the ability to trade a large amount with a small margin deposit. Some of the best firms offer 400:1 leverage.
6. Hedging CapabilityThat means the flexibility of opening positions on the same currency pair in opposite directions without eliminating each other and without margin increase!
Marketiva is one of the new generation of brokers who broke the rules: NO MINIMUM limit for opening an account, you also get $5 welcome bunus to test, and they accept funding with egold.
**If you want to open a Marketiva account click the banner below:
